CMAG × S-RM | LME Week 2026 | London, 19 October
Commodities Under Pressure in Partnership with S-RM
As competition for critical minerals intensifies, resource-producing countries are reconsidering how they participate in global mineral value chains. For mining companies and investors, changing government priorities, greater emphasis on domestic value addition and geopolitical uncertainty are raising important questions about investment protection, commercial relationships and dispute resolution.
During LME Week, the Critical Minerals Africa Group (CMAG), in partnership with global intelligence and risk consultancy S-RM, brought together senior representatives from mining, commodities, finance and law to examine how geopolitical developments and changing mineral policies are affecting investment risk and commercial disputes.
Resource sovereignty and the changing investment landscape
Competition for critical minerals is taking place against a backdrop of shifting geopolitical relationships and growing questions about the durability of international conventions and established commercial arrangements.
The concentration of mineral processing and refining capacity creates vulnerabilities within global supply chains, while resource-producing countries are increasingly considering how their mineral endowments can support broader economic and industrial development. For African governments, this raises questions about how mineral resources can be used to attract infrastructure investment, processing capacity and long-term industrial partnerships.
A central theme was the importance of aligning mineral policy with the practical requirements of industrial development. Resource leverage may strengthen a country's negotiating position, but converting that advantage into lasting economic value requires credible infrastructure and investment planning.
Industrial policy must account for the infrastructure, capital and implementation requirements needed to achieve its objectives. Working backwards from the intended outcome can help identify the conditions required to make domestic processing and other value-addition ambitions commercially viable.
Beneficiation: Who carries the cost?
Domestic beneficiation remains an important policy ambition for many mineral-producing countries. However, the discussion raised a fundamental commercial question: should mining companies be expected to bear the cost of developing domestic processing capacity?
Processing requirements can introduce additional capital demands, making the availability of infrastructure and long-term investment partners particularly important. Guinea's iron ore sector provided a reference point for discussing the potential advantages of more gradual development, particularly where industrial ambitions require substantial supporting investment.
The role of reliable, long-term investment partners was also considered, including the experience of Chinese investment in mineral and infrastructure development.
The wider issue is how governments and investors can align expectations around the pace, financing and practical delivery of domestic value addition. Beneficiation ambitions need to be considered alongside the investment and infrastructure conditions required to implement them.
Diversifying investment, not just supply chains
Much of the international critical minerals debate focuses on diversifying mineral supply and reducing dependence on concentrated processing markets. The discussion highlighted a related consideration for resource-producing countries: the importance of diversifying their investment partners. Reliance on external actors for processing, refining and investment can create vulnerabilities. Broadening the pool of financing and development partners may offer greater flexibility in pursuing national industrial priorities.
The potential contribution of the United States, development finance institutions and multilateral organisations was considered, including the role such institutions can play in supporting investor confidence.
Diversification of investment partnerships deserves greater attention alongside diversification of mineral supply chains. For resource-producing countries, the availability of credible financing and development partners is an important consideration in turning mineral potential into viable industrial projects.
Investment risk changes once capital is committed
Mining investments are particularly exposed to changes in operating conditions because of their substantial upfront expenditure and sunk costs. Before committing capital, investors can assess the political and regulatory environment, examine counterparties and negotiate contractual protections. Once an investment is underway, changes to taxation, royalties and other regulatory requirements can have significant commercial implications.
The discussion considered how investors depend on host-state institutional capacity while navigating differing degrees of sovereign assertiveness. External factors, including conflict, sanctions, supply-chain disruption and third-party actions, can further complicate the operating environment. Contractual protections therefore play an important role in managing investment risk. Stabilisation clauses, economic equilibrium provisions and adaptation clauses were among the mechanisms discussed, alongside protections available through investment treaties. Their effectiveness depends on how they are drafted and the circumstances they cover.
The existence of contractual protection is not necessarily sufficient. Its scope must reflect the risks to which the investment is exposed. A Peruvian mining example illustrated how changes to taxation and royalties can have consequences for investment in processing and refining.
For investors, understanding the interaction between contractual rights, regulatory change and the wider political environment remains an important part of managing long-term mining exposure.
Resolving disputes before commercial value is lost
Legal remedies are an important safeguard for investors, but formal dispute resolution can be lengthy. Where disagreements arise between mining companies and host governments, the time required to secure a judgment may itself result in substantial commercial losses. By the time a dispute reaches court, the relationship between the investor and the state may already have deteriorated considerably.
The discussion highlighted the importance of understanding the circumstances behind that deterioration, alongside establishing the legal rights of the parties involved. Maintaining a meaningful domestic presence and investing in relationships with relevant stakeholders may help companies navigate disagreements before they escalate.
A favourable legal outcome does not necessarily reverse the commercial damage caused by a prolonged dispute. This makes the management of government and counterparty relationships an important consideration throughout the life of a mining investment.
Intelligence, investigations and the value of local knowledge
Political and commercial relationships are rarely static. Changes in political connections, decision-makers and stakeholder interests can affect how risks develop and how disputes are managed. The discussion emphasised the importance of a coordinated approach to understanding these dynamics.
Pre-emptive risk assessment can help investors identify potential sources of conflict, while stakeholder mapping provides insight into the parties involved, their incentives and the relationships influencing decisions.
Once a dispute arises, evidence gathering becomes particularly important. Investigations may draw on documentation, public records, local knowledge and human sources to establish the relevant facts and wider context. This can be especially challenging where information is difficult to access or where political and commercial relationships are complex. Stakeholder mapping can also help identify opportunities to maintain relationships or support a resolution.
Effective dispute management depends on more than legal arguments. Understanding the people, relationships and interests surrounding a dispute can be equally important.
The discussion also considered the role of investigations undertaken on behalf of states, recognising that intelligence and evidence gathering are relevant to parties on both sides of a commercial disagreement.
Implications for mining investment
The discussion brought several interconnected considerations into focus.
- For resource-producing governments, domestic value addition ambitions must be considered alongside the infrastructure, investment and institutional requirements needed to support industrial development.
- For mining companies and investors, contractual protections and political-risk assessments are particularly important before substantial capital is committed. Continued attention to government relationships and changing stakeholder interests also matters once an investment is operational.
- For financiers and development partners, diversifying investment relationships and supporting credible project structures can contribute to investor confidence and broader industrial development.
Across these perspectives, one issue remains particularly relevant: the commercial consequences of allowing disagreements to escalate.
Mining investments involve long-term commitments, complex stakeholder relationships and substantial capital exposure. Understanding the political and commercial environment, maintaining relationships and gathering reliable evidence can all contribute to better risk management and dispute resolution.
As resource sovereignty and geopolitical competition continue to influence mineral investment, the ability to anticipate and manage changing commercial relationships will remain central to protecting investment value.
About the event
Commodities Under Pressure was hosted by the Critical Minerals Africa Group (CMAG) in partnership with S-RM, a global intelligence and risk consultancy, during LME Week 2026 in London.
Opening remarks:
- Olimpia Pilch, Chief Strategy Officer, Critical Minerals Africa Group
- Matthew Venturas, Director, S-RM
Panellists:
- Natznet Tesfay, Vice President, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence
- Michael Barton, Associate Director, Disputes & Investigations, S-RM
- Ramon Luque, Special Counsel, Covington & Burling LLP
- James Libson, Senior Partner, Mishcon de Reya LLP
Moderator: Henry Finnegan, Adviser, Critical Minerals Africa Group.
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