CMAG hosted Critical Minerals 101 – Understanding Risk in partnership with S-RM, with generous support from AXA XL as our event host. The session brought together senior experts for an honest, practical discussion on the risk landscape facing investors entering Sub-Saharan markets — from the realities of operating in volatile jurisdictions to the opportunities created by Africa's rapidly growing, youthful population and the urgent need for job creation. Demographic pressure can drive instability, but it also intensifies demand for investment, infrastructure, and employment pathways.
Critical minerals also face a distinct set of global challenges that compound on-the-ground risks. Markets remain highly volatile, supply chains are heavily monopolised, and specialised processing equipment and technical know-how are still largely concentrated in China. Unlike traditional commodities with deep, liquid markets, critical minerals are increasingly wielded as political and geopolitical leverage — intensifying competition, distorting pricing, and raising the stakes for investors seeking stable, long-term returns.
Moderator
- Olimpia Pilch, Chief Strategy Officer, CMAG
Panellists
- Henry Hall, Consulting Partner, ERM
- Dharshini Prasad, Partner, Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP
- Diana Nyabongo, Director of Operations, S-RM
- Daniel Mobbs, Security Risks – Underwriter, Crisis Management, AXA XL
The discussion explored the complex risk environment surrounding critical minerals projects, including instability in the Sahel, preparing for volatility, and the limits of foresight when confronted with genuinely unpredictable events — such as the recent black swan expropriation in Mali. A consistent message emerged: high-risk does not mean "no-go." Risk must be understood, mitigated, and managed. Investors with strong legal protections, clear crisis planning, and a deep understanding of local networks are far better positioned to protect assets and ensure project continuity. Ultimately, miners will take on higher-risk ventures when the reward justifies it, and Sub-Saharan Africa continues to draw increasing interest — particularly from junior explorers.
A few clear takeaways emerged:
- Critical minerals projects carry inherent geopolitical exposure — not just in Africa but worldwide.
- A strong grasp of technical, legal, jurisdictional and political risk is essential to protect capital and ensure projects remain viable.
- Some shocks simply cannot be predicted — such as the recent black swan event in Mali involving expropriation and arrests.
- While the sector's potential rewards are high, Western investors continue to show greater caution than their Chinese counterparts.
- Encouragingly, interest from junior explorers in Sub-Saharan Africa is rising, signalling new momentum in the region.
Key perspectives from the panel
"It is paramount that both experienced stakeholders and new entrants to the critical minerals industry are aware of the evolving security and continuity challenges that will likely present themselves. By undertaking meaningful risk transfer and robust risk analysis at local and international level, along with crisis management planning, the industry should be confident to navigate these challenges and thrive in the growing opportunities in Africa and further afield."
— Daniel Mobbs, Security Risks – Underwriter, Crisis Management, AXA XL
"The mining of critical minerals in Africa continues to present the continent with the opportunity to transform our economies, particularly in relation to mining value chains, infrastructure, energy and how mining revenues are apportioned. This opportunity is not without risk; however, well-informed investors are uniquely positioned to manage and navigate these risks. At S-RM we are excited to continue supporting the African mining industry."
— Diana Nyabongo, Director of Operations, S-RM
Thank you once again to S-RM for partnering with us, to AXA XL for hosting, and to our speakers and guests for contributing to a sharp and forward-looking discussion.
